2015-02-21

重溫 Monty Hall Problem

也重溫那聰明反被狂罵笨蛋事例。

- Priceonomics: The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman

In September 1990, Marilyn vos Savant devoted one of her columns to a reader’s question, which presented a variation of the Monty Hall Problem:

“Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say #1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say #3, which has a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to pick door #2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?”

“Yes; you should switch,” she replied. “The first door has a 1/3 chance of winning, but the second door has a 2/3 chance.”

Though her answer was correct, a vast swath of academics responded with outrage. In the proceeding months, vos Savant received more than 10,000 letters ... all of which contended that she was entirely incompetent.


除了通過Monty Hall Problem/Marilyn vos Savant事件討論條件概率及認知誤區(Wikipedia: Monty Hall problem提供更詳盡解釋)外,我們應否追問:

真正聰明的人是個女人,跟她被過萬自以為聰明人來信狂罵有關嗎?

文中提到,即使Marilyn vos Savant再寫三篇專欄詳細解釋,即使時隔一年,仍有人去信罵她:“I still think you’re wrong. There is such a thing as female logic.”


- 延伸閱讀:臉書討論vos Savant這獨一無二的姓

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- (初遇Monty Hall Problem) 曾堯角落:讀思存,長智慧