2016-01-18

經濟學家伸「兩手」答不知道

被問如何解釋全球股市過往兩星期暴跌,你若搞不清楚,可簡單答「不知道」三個字,也可以效法頂尖經濟師Olivier Blanchard寫千字文表達「不知道」。

- Olivier Blanchard: The Price of Oil, China, and Stock market Herding

So how much should we worry? This is where economics stops giving an answer. Or, more specifically, where it gives the dreaded two-handed answer. If it becomes clear within a few days or a few weeks that fundamentals are in fact not so bad, stock prices will recover, just as they did last summer, and this will be seen as a hiccup. If, however, the stock market slump lasts longer or gets worse, it can become self-fulfilling. ... One has to hope for the first scenario, but worry about the second.

他的說法看似可笑,其實未必。Olivier Blanchard畢竟是有堅實學問根底的經濟師,還未搞清楚的就伸「兩手」(the two-handed answer)說不知道,只是有點長篇大論而已。若是天天出鏡的股壇明燈,他必定會答,我知道我知道。